Figure · Interactive scenario model

Regime variance and the decline of a frontier laboratory

A heuristic model of regime dynamics — not a forecast. Capability is treated as a rising trend; what governs decline is the variance of the governance regime. Every coefficient is a declared assumption.

Safety-branding intensity (S) 0.70

Initial regulatory predictability (R₀) 0.50

Initial epistemic coupling (E₀) 0.50

Monte-Carlo trials 600

Regime consolidates (R decays over time)

Scenarios

Median terminal C—

P(decline · C<0.5)—

band = 10th–90th pct · faint lines = individual runs

The line is the median capability lead C across the ensemble; the shaded band is the 10th–90th percentile; the dashed line marks the decline threshold (C = 0.5). Read the lower tail and which loop drives it, not the central value: push S high while R₀ and E₀ are low to see the brand-as-munition and flight loops collapse the tail. Drag the sliders or pick a scenario.

Scenario coordinates — A Sovereign capture / managed decline: R₀≈0.30, E₀≈0.30, consolidates. B Jurisdictional arbitrage / hollowing: R₀≈0.50, E₀≈0.40, non-consolidating. D Recovery / re-coupling: R₀≈0.70, E₀≈0.70, non-consolidating. (Scenario C — discretionary regime that nonetheless binds itself to evidence — is transient and is discussed in the text rather than presented as a preset.)